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Exploring scenarios for the maritime industry’s pathway to a greener future.

Shipping is a major contributor to global GHG emissions and the IMO has laid out a strategy and policies to change that.
However, there are multiple critical factors that will determine the development of low carbon technologies and possible futures for shipping.

#AHOY2050 introduces four different scenarios, each with a very different outcome in regard to the industry’s future, technological development and GHG mitigation efforts.

Cruise ship diesel electric propulsion
fossil fuels have to be banned to reach the climate goals
IMO goal:
CO2 reduction by 2050
In this study
key factors with high relevance for the shipping industry are identified

What will the shipping industry look like in 2050?

For the marine industry, the course has been set: The regulations of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) require the shipping industry’s carbon footprint to be reduced by at least 50% by 2050 compared to 2008. At the same time, the projected increase in shipping emissions is driven by the growth of international trade. The IMO predicts that shipping emissions could grow by between 50 to 250% by 2050: based in industries growth scenarios.

Therfore international shipping industry needs to solve this dilemma: reduce our industry’s carbon footprint while growing our business.

MAN Energy Solutions has championed the Maritime Energy Transition since 2016. We not only develop technological solutions but also support an appropriate global regulatory framework – and we want to provide a platform for in-depth discussion.

To date, there are only a few medium/long-term studies that provide an outlook on major reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and most scenarios focus on technology only.

Therefore, we commissioned the Fraunhofer-Institute for Systems and Innovations Research (ISI) to develop holistic scenarios that incorporate a long-term view to-wards 2050. These holistic scenarios take into account all relevant factors affecting the transition process, including changes in lifestyle and thinking, economic growth, regulation and digitalization.

With this study we present four different future scenarios for shipping in 2050. They provide valuable insights for the whole industry and may contribute to better understanding and decision-making.

Our key take aways of the study



We need society’s advocacy to make the maritime energy transition a success. The underlying change process required is much bigger than our industry.

#global growth


Global growth can be an important driver for decarbonisation – and vice versa

#fossil fuels


At some point down the road we may have to discuss a ban of fossile fuels, which takes us right back to the first insight.

At some point down the road we may have to discuss a ban of fossile fuels

Uwe Lauber, CEO MAN Energy Solutions


Download the study

  • to learn more about four different scenarions on what the shipping industry might look like in 2050
  • get some valuable insights for a better understanding and decision making


Go to download

In cooperation with the Fraunhofer-Institute for systems and innovations research ISI